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Table 2 Predicted and observed risk of mortality based on risk classification by CURB-65, CRB-65, CTA, and CURB-45 severity scores among hospitalized adults with lower respiratory tract infections, South Africa, 2010–2011

From: Development of a respiratory severity score for hospitalized adults in a high HIV-prevalence setting—South Africa, 2010–2011

Severity Score Risk Classification Score N Predicted Mortality (%) Observed Mortality (%) (95% Confidence Interval) C-statistic
CURB-65 (N = 1011)
 Low risk 0 or 1 848 1.5 6.4 (4.8–8.2) 0.594
 Intermediate risk 2 140 9.2 12.7 (7.8–19.6)
 High risk ≥3 23 22.0 34.8 (15.3–54.3)
CRB-65 (N = 1332)
 Low risk 0 905 1.2 6.5 (5.0–8.3) 0.548
 Intermediate risk 1 or 2 427 8.2 9.6 (7.0–12.8)
 High risk 3 or 4 0 31.0 0
CTA (N = 1011)
 Stage 1 815 2.3 6.9 (5.2–8.8) 0.569
 Stage 2 114 5.8 7.0 (3.1–13.4)
 Stage 3 25 12.9 36.0 (18.0–57.5)
 Stage 4 52 22.0 7.7 (2.1–18.5)
 Stage 5 5 40.5 60.0 (14.7–94.7)
CURB-45 (N = 1011)
 Low risk 0 or 1 751 4.9 (3.5–6.7) 0.666
 Intermediate risk 2 204 12.8 (8.5–18.1)
 High risk ≥3 56 21.3 (18.8–44.1)
  1. Legend: The CURB-65 and CRB-65 scores predict 30-day mortality risk. The Classification Tree Analysis predicts inpatient mortality risk for HIV-infected patients