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Table 2 Predicted and observed risk of mortality based on risk classification by CURB-65, CRB-65, CTA, and CURB-45 severity scores among hospitalized adults with lower respiratory tract infections, South Africa, 2010–2011

From: Development of a respiratory severity score for hospitalized adults in a high HIV-prevalence setting—South Africa, 2010–2011

Severity Score Risk Classification

Score

N

Predicted Mortality (%)

Observed Mortality (%) (95% Confidence Interval)

C-statistic

CURB-65 (N = 1011)

 Low risk

0 or 1

848

1.5

6.4 (4.8–8.2)

0.594

 Intermediate risk

2

140

9.2

12.7 (7.8–19.6)

 High risk

≥3

23

22.0

34.8 (15.3–54.3)

CRB-65 (N = 1332)

 Low risk

0

905

1.2

6.5 (5.0–8.3)

0.548

 Intermediate risk

1 or 2

427

8.2

9.6 (7.0–12.8)

 High risk

3 or 4

0

31.0

0

CTA (N = 1011)

 Stage 1

815

2.3

6.9 (5.2–8.8)

0.569

 Stage 2

114

5.8

7.0 (3.1–13.4)

 Stage 3

25

12.9

36.0 (18.0–57.5)

 Stage 4

52

22.0

7.7 (2.1–18.5)

 Stage 5

5

40.5

60.0 (14.7–94.7)

CURB-45 (N = 1011)

 Low risk

0 or 1

751

4.9 (3.5–6.7)

0.666

 Intermediate risk

2

204

12.8 (8.5–18.1)

 High risk

≥3

56

21.3 (18.8–44.1)

  1. Legend: The CURB-65 and CRB-65 scores predict 30-day mortality risk. The Classification Tree Analysis predicts inpatient mortality risk for HIV-infected patients