Predictors of one-year mortality after hospitalization for an exacerbation of COPD

BMC Pulmonary Medicine

Table 4 Derivation cohort. Multivariate analysis. Predicting factors of mortality in 1 year

	β (s.e.)	OR (95% CI)	p-value	Weight	AUC
Intercept	− 2.12 (0.56)		0.0002		0.672
Age^b	0.46 (0.08)	1.581 (1.357–1.842)	< 0.0001	2
COPD related previous admissions (Yes vs. No)	0.79 (0.18)	2.201 (1.541–3.144)	< 0.0001	4
Cardio-cerebro-peripheral vascular disease^a (Yes vs. No)	0.47 (0.15)	1.598 (1.189–2.148)	0.0019	2
Dementia (Yes vs. No)	1.09 (0.39)	2.973 (1.394–6.340)	0.0048	5
PaCO2
45–55 (vs. < 45)	− 0.05 (0.18)	0.947 (0.663–1.353)	0.7631	0
> 55 (vs. < 45)	0.47 (0.19)	1.601 (1.102–2.326)	0.0135	2
Hospital characteristics					0.747

Hospital characteristics: defined by “total number of beds”
β parameter estimation, s.e. standard error, OR odds ratio, CI confidence interval, AUC area under the receiver operating characteristic Curve, Weight indicates the weight for each variable to create the risk score
^aInclude ischaemic heart disease, cardiac failure, peripheral vascular disease and cerebrovascular disease
^bEstimation for increment of a decade with respect to patients with 50 years or less
p-value Hosmer y Lemeshow = 0.26 (including in the analysis hospital p-value = 0.19)

ISSN: 1471-2466