Predictors of one-year mortality after hospitalization for an exacerbation of COPD

BMC Pulmonary Medicine

Table 5 Validation cohort. Multivariate analysis. Predicting factors of COPD mortality in 1 year

	β (s.e.)	OR (95% CI)	p-value	AUC
Intercept	− 3.08 (0.55)		< 0.0001	0.672
Age^b	0.43 (0.06)	1.530 (1.367–1.712)	< 0.0001
COPD related previous admissions (Yes vs. No)	0.72 (0.11)	2.045 (1.640–2.550)	< 0.0001
Cardio-cerebro-peripheral vascular disease^a (Yes vs. No)	0.31 (0.11)	1.367 (1.097–1.705)	0.0054
Dementia (Yes vs. No)	0.50 (0.26)	1.648 (0.984–2.758)	0.0575
PaCO2
45–55 (vs. < 45)	0.22 (0.13)	1.245 (0.965–1.607)	0.0917
> 55 (vs. < 45)	0.51 (0.13)	1.665 (1.280–2.165)	0.0001
Hospital characteristics				0.763

Hospital characteristics: defined by “total number of beds”
β parameter estimation, s.e. standard error, OR odds ratio, CI confidence interval, AUC area under the receiver operating characteristic curve
^aInclude ischaemic heart disease, cardiac failure, peripheral arterial disease and cerebrovascular disease
^bEstimation for increment of a decade. With respect to patients with 50 years or less
p-value Hosmer y Lemeshow = 0.25 (including in the analysis hospital p-value = 0,37)

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