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Table 1 Baseline estimates for selected variables in never smokers

From: Cost-effectiveness and health impact of lung cancer screening with low-dose computed tomography for never smokers in Japan and the United States: a modelling study

Variable

Baseline value

Sensitivity analysis range

Reference

Incidence of lung cancer in 60-year-old never smokers in Japan

   

 Women

0.0152

0.001–0.03

[23]

 Men

0.009

0.001–0.03

 

Stage-specific 5-year survival rate in Japan

   

 Stage I

0.812

0.7–0.85

[21]

 Stage II

0.463

0.3–0.6

 

 Stage III

0.223

0.15–0.5

 

 Stage IV

0.051

0.01–0.1

 

Stage detection proportions of lung cancer in no screening in Japan

   

 Stage I

0.22

0.1–0.6

[32]

 Stage II

0.06

0–0.2

 

 Stage III

0.21

0.1–0.3

 

 Stage IV

0.51

0.3–0.7

 

Costs in Japan, US$

   

 CXR

28.5

14.3–57.0

[33]

 LDCT

195.7

97.9–391.4

 

 Bronchoscopy with CT-guided lung biopsy

906.2

453.1–1812.4

 

 Treatment of lung cancer, Stage I

25,835

12,918–51,670

 

 Treatment of lung cancer, Stage II

37,758

18,879–75,516

 

 Treatment of lung cancer, Stage III

48,688

24,344–97,376

 

 Treatment of lung cancer, Stage IV

264,308

132,154–528,616

 

Incidence of lung cancer in 60-year-old never smokers in the United States

   

 Women

0.000207

0.000135–0.000311

[26]

 Men

0.000137

0.00009–0.000215

 

Stage-specific 5-year survival rate in the United States

   

 Stage I

0.75

0.7–0.85

[16, 40]

 Stage II

0.53

0.3–0.6

 

 Stage III

0.41

0.15–0.5

 

 Stage IV

0.07

0.01–0.1

 

Stage detection proportions of lung cancer in no screening in the United States

   

 Stage I

0.24

0.1–0.6

[30]

 Stage II

0.07

0–0.2

 

 Stage III

0.28

0.1–0.3

 

 Stage IV

0.41

0.3–0.7

 

Costs in the United States, US$

   

 CXR

42.3

21.2–84.6

[35,36,37]

 LDCT

254.6

127.3–509.2

 

 Bronchoscopy with CT-guided lung biopsy

681.0

340.5–1362.0

 

 Treatment of lung cancer, Stage I

20,984

10,492–41,968

 

 Treatment of lung cancer, Stage II

20,984

10,492–41,968

 

 Treatment of lung cancer, Stage III

37,987

18,994–75,974

 

 Treatment of lung cancer, Stage IV

82,601

41,301–165,202

 

Stage detection proportions of lung cancer in CXR screening in Japan and the United States

   

 Stage I

0.61

0.4–0.7

[39]

 Stage II

0.07

0–0.2

 

 Stage III

0.17

0.1–0.3

 

 Stage IV

0.15

0.1–0.3

 

Stage detection proportions of lung cancer in LDCT screening in Japan and the United States

   

 Stage I

0.96

0.8–1.0

[23]

 Stage II

0.01

0–0.1

 

 Stage III

0.03

0–0.1

 

 Stage IV

0.01

0–0.1

 

Accuracies (%)

   

 Sensitivity of CXR

73.5

67.2–79.8

[41]

 Specificity of CXR

91.3

91.0–91.6

 

 Sensitivity of LDCT

93.8

90.6–96.3

 

 Specificity of LDCT

73.4

72.8–73.9

 

Utilities

   

 Healthy

1

N/A

[44]

 Stage I lung cancer

0.87

0.7–0.9

 

 Stage II lung cancer

0.87

0.7–0.9

 

 Stage III lung cancer

0.77

0.6–0.8

 

 Stage IV lung cancer

0.57

0.3–0.6

 

 Cured lung cancer

0.9

0.7–0.9

 

 Dead

0

N/A

 

Cumulative increased radiogenic risk of cancer from repeated annual LDCT (%)

   

 Women

0.30

N/A

[42]

 Men

0.13

N/A

 
  1. LDCT low-dose computed tomography, CXR chest X-ray, N/A not applicable