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Table 3 Summary of the performance of the multicomponent prognostic models

From: Predictors of mortality in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Prognostic tool

Variables

Study

N

Discriminative ability

3-month mortality

6-month mortality

12-month mortality

24-month mortality

ADO

Age, dyspnea (MRC), airflow obstruction (FEV1)

Almagro, 2014

606

AUC

0.651 (0.618–0.682)

–

0.641 (0.609–0.673)

–

  

Marin, 2013

3633

c-statistic

–

0.701

0.702

–

  

Bloom, 2019

54,990

AUC

  

T: 0.675 (0.655–0.694)

V: 0.568 (0.514–0.595)

 
  

Morales, 2018

54,879

c-statistic

–

–

0.737 (0.727–0.746)

0.741 (0.735–0.748)

  

Puhan, 2013

409

AUC

–

–

–

0.80 (0.71–0.89)

  

Horita, 2016

607

AUC

–

–

–

0.67

ADO + handgrip strength

 

Puhan, 2013

409

AUC

–

–

–

0.80 (0.71–0.89)

ADO + sit-to-stand test

 

Puhan, 2013

409

AUC

–

–

–

0.82 (0.74–0.90)

BARC

Body mass index and blood results, Age, Respiratory Variables (Airflow obstruction, Exacerbations, Smoking), Comorbidities

Bloom, 2019

54,990

c-statistic

  

T: 0.794 (0.782–0.807)

V: 0.671 (0.647–0.695)

 

BOD

Body mass index, Airflow obstruction (FEV1), Dyspnea (mMRC)

Puhan, 2013

409

AUC

–

–

–

0.66 (0.55–0.77)

BODE

Body mass index, Airflow obstruction (FEV1), Dyspnea (mMRC), Exercise capacity (6MWD)

Marin, 2013

3633

c-statistic

–

0.680

0.682

–

  

Horita, 2016

607

AUC

–

–

–

0.67

BODE + handgrip strength

 

Puhan, 2013

409

AUC

–

–

–

0.68 (0.57–0.80)

BODE + sit-to-stand test

 

Puhan, 2013

409

AUC

–

–

–

0.78 (0.70–0.87)

eBODE

BODE + previous exacerbations

Marin, 2013

3633

c-statistic

–

0.680

0.683

–

mBODE

Body mass index, Airflow obstruction (FEV1), Dyspnea (UCSD)

Martinez, 2008

1218

c-statistic

–

0.66

0.68

0.69

BODEX

Body mass index, Airflow obstruction (FEV1), Dyspnea (mMRC), Previous exacerbations

Almagro, 2014

606

AUC

0.615 (0.582–0.647)

–

0.615 (0.582–0.648)

–

  

Marin, 2013

3633

c-statistic

–

0.651

0.651

–

  

Bloom, 2019

54,990

AUC

  

T: 0.483 (0.453–0.512)

V: 0.413 (0.379–0.447)

 

CODEX

Comorbidity, Airflow obstruction (FEV1), Dyspnea (mMRC), Previous exacerbations

Almagro, 2014

606

AUC

0.724 (0.693–0.753)

–

0.679 (0.647–0.709)

–

  

Morales, 2018

54,879

c-statistic

–

–

0.671 (0.661–0.682)

0.676 (0.668–0.683)

COPD Prognostic Score

Age, Airflow obstruction (FEV1), Dyspnea (mMRC), Hemoglobin, Activity (Daily Activity Scale), Emergency admissions (last 24 months)

Horita, 2016

607

AUC

–

–

–

0.72

DOSE

Dyspnea (mMRC), Airflow obstruction (FEV1), Smoking status, Previous exacerbations

Almagro, 2014

606

AUC

0.601 (0.568–0.633)

–

0.595 (0.562–0.628)

–

  

Marin, 2013

3633

c-statistic

–

0.632

0.631

–

  

Bloom, 2019

54,990

AUC

  

T: 0.591 (0.568–0.614)

V: 0.515 (0.485–0.546)

 
  

Morales, 2018

54,879

c-statistic

–

–

0.669 (0.658–0.679)

0.672 (0.664–0.679)

ProPal-COPD

Body mass index, Airflow obstruction (FEV1), Dyspnea (mMRC), Comorbidity, Previous exacerbations, Surprise question, Clinical COPD questionnaire

Duenk, 2017

155

AUC

–

–

0.82 (0.81–0.82)

–

SAFE

Airflow obstruction (FEV1), Exercise capacity (6MWD), Quality of life (SGRQ)

Marin, 2013

3633

c-statistic

–

0.641

0.642

–

Unnamed model 1

Age, Body mass index, Race, C-reactive protein

Man, 2006

4803

c-statistic

–

–

0.82

–

Unnamed model 2

Readmission ≤ 30 days, Community-acquired pneumonia

Park, 2020

 

AUC

 

0.678 (0.597–0.758)

  

Unnamed model 3

Age, Sex

Zhan, 2020

 

c-statistic

  

T: 0.771 (0.767–0.775)

V: 0.768 (0.764–0.772)

 
  1. 6MWD, 6-min walking distance; FEV1, forced expiratory volume in one second; mMRC, Modified Medical Research Council; PaO2/FiO2, ratio of arterial oxygen partial pressure to fractional inspired oxygen; SGRQ, St. George's Respiratory Questionnaire; Surprise question, ‘Would you be surprised if this patient died in the next year?’; T, test set; UCSD, University of California San Diego–Shortness of Breath Questionnaire; V, external validation set