Prognostic tool | Variables | Study | N | Discriminative ability | 3-month mortality | 6-month mortality | 12-month mortality | 24-month mortality |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ADO | Age, dyspnea (MRC), airflow obstruction (FEV1) | Almagro, 2014 | 606 | AUC | 0.651 (0.618–0.682) | – | 0.641 (0.609–0.673) | – |
 |  | Marin, 2013 | 3633 | c-statistic | – | 0.701 | 0.702 | – |
 |  | Bloom, 2019 | 54,990 | AUC |  |  | T: 0.675 (0.655–0.694) V: 0.568 (0.514–0.595) |  |
 |  | Morales, 2018 | 54,879 | c-statistic | – | – | 0.737 (0.727–0.746) | 0.741 (0.735–0.748) |
 |  | Puhan, 2013 | 409 | AUC | – | – | – | 0.80 (0.71–0.89) |
 |  | Horita, 2016 | 607 | AUC | – | – | – | 0.67 |
ADO + handgrip strength |  | Puhan, 2013 | 409 | AUC | – | – | – | 0.80 (0.71–0.89) |
ADO + sit-to-stand test |  | Puhan, 2013 | 409 | AUC | – | – | – | 0.82 (0.74–0.90) |
BARC | Body mass index and blood results, Age, Respiratory Variables (Airflow obstruction, Exacerbations, Smoking), Comorbidities | Bloom, 2019 | 54,990 | c-statistic |  |  | T: 0.794 (0.782–0.807) V: 0.671 (0.647–0.695) |  |
BOD | Body mass index, Airflow obstruction (FEV1), Dyspnea (mMRC) | Puhan, 2013 | 409 | AUC | – | – | – | 0.66 (0.55–0.77) |
BODE | Body mass index, Airflow obstruction (FEV1), Dyspnea (mMRC), Exercise capacity (6MWD) | Marin, 2013 | 3633 | c-statistic | – | 0.680 | 0.682 | – |
 |  | Horita, 2016 | 607 | AUC | – | – | – | 0.67 |
BODE + handgrip strength |  | Puhan, 2013 | 409 | AUC | – | – | – | 0.68 (0.57–0.80) |
BODE + sit-to-stand test |  | Puhan, 2013 | 409 | AUC | – | – | – | 0.78 (0.70–0.87) |
eBODE | BODE + previous exacerbations | Marin, 2013 | 3633 | c-statistic | – | 0.680 | 0.683 | – |
mBODE | Body mass index, Airflow obstruction (FEV1), Dyspnea (UCSD) | Martinez, 2008 | 1218 | c-statistic | – | 0.66 | 0.68 | 0.69 |
BODEX | Body mass index, Airflow obstruction (FEV1), Dyspnea (mMRC), Previous exacerbations | Almagro, 2014 | 606 | AUC | 0.615 (0.582–0.647) | – | 0.615 (0.582–0.648) | – |
 |  | Marin, 2013 | 3633 | c-statistic | – | 0.651 | 0.651 | – |
 |  | Bloom, 2019 | 54,990 | AUC |  |  | T: 0.483 (0.453–0.512) V: 0.413 (0.379–0.447) |  |
CODEX | Comorbidity, Airflow obstruction (FEV1), Dyspnea (mMRC), Previous exacerbations | Almagro, 2014 | 606 | AUC | 0.724 (0.693–0.753) | – | 0.679 (0.647–0.709) | – |
 |  | Morales, 2018 | 54,879 | c-statistic | – | – | 0.671 (0.661–0.682) | 0.676 (0.668–0.683) |
COPD Prognostic Score | Age, Airflow obstruction (FEV1), Dyspnea (mMRC), Hemoglobin, Activity (Daily Activity Scale), Emergency admissions (last 24 months) | Horita, 2016 | 607 | AUC | – | – | – | 0.72 |
DOSE | Dyspnea (mMRC), Airflow obstruction (FEV1), Smoking status, Previous exacerbations | Almagro, 2014 | 606 | AUC | 0.601 (0.568–0.633) | – | 0.595 (0.562–0.628) | – |
 |  | Marin, 2013 | 3633 | c-statistic | – | 0.632 | 0.631 | – |
 |  | Bloom, 2019 | 54,990 | AUC |  |  | T: 0.591 (0.568–0.614) V: 0.515 (0.485–0.546) |  |
 |  | Morales, 2018 | 54,879 | c-statistic | – | – | 0.669 (0.658–0.679) | 0.672 (0.664–0.679) |
ProPal-COPD | Body mass index, Airflow obstruction (FEV1), Dyspnea (mMRC), Comorbidity, Previous exacerbations, Surprise question, Clinical COPD questionnaire | Duenk, 2017 | 155 | AUC | – | – | 0.82 (0.81–0.82) | – |
SAFE | Airflow obstruction (FEV1), Exercise capacity (6MWD), Quality of life (SGRQ) | Marin, 2013 | 3633 | c-statistic | – | 0.641 | 0.642 | – |
Unnamed model 1 | Age, Body mass index, Race, C-reactive protein | Man, 2006 | 4803 | c-statistic | – | – | 0.82 | – |
Unnamed model 2 | Readmission ≤ 30 days, Community-acquired pneumonia | Park, 2020 |  | AUC |  | 0.678 (0.597–0.758) |  |  |
Unnamed model 3 | Age, Sex | Zhan, 2020 |  | c-statistic |  |  | T: 0.771 (0.767–0.775) V: 0.768 (0.764–0.772) |  |