Table 3 Multivariate models for prediction of Length of stay
Parameters | Initial Prediciton model | Follow-up Prediciton model | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HR (95%CI) | p | Points | HR (95%CI) | p | Points | |
Age (age <60 Reference group) | ||||||
Age 60–70 years | 0.81 (0.59-1.11) | 0.187 | 1 | 0.74 (0.54-1.01) | 0.06 | 2 |
Age 70–80 years | 0.65 (0.46-0.92) | 0.014 | 3 | 0.59 (0.42-0.82) | 0.002 | 4 |
Age >80 years | 0.65 (0.46-0.92) | 0.015 | 3 | 0.53 (0.37-0.76) | <0.001 | 4 |
Past medical history | ||||||
Fever (Temp > 38.5°C) | 1.1 (0.89-1.36) | 0.372 | 1.16 (0.93-1.44) | 0.181 | ||
Active smoker | 1.04 (0.82-1.33) | 0.745 | 0.98 (0.76-1.24) | 0.839 | ||
Regular alcohol consumption | 1.22 (0.89-1.51) | 0.261 | 1.36 (0.91-1.69) | 0.34 | ||
Clinical presentation | ||||||
BD systolic < 90 mmHg | 0.78 (0.46-1.32) | 0.348 | 1.29 (0.74-2.25) | 0.362 | ||
Respiratory rate > 20 pm | 0.76 (0.61-0.95) | 0.014 | 2 | 0.74 (0.6-0.92) | 0.006 | 2 |
Confusion | 0.99 (0.69-1.41) | 0.939 | 1.03 (0.72-1.48) | 0.855 | ||
Situation at home | ||||||
Nursing home* | 0.84 (0.67-1.06) | 0.138 | 1 | 0.72 (0.57-0.92) | 0.008 | 2 |
Comorbid condition | ||||||
Chronic pulmonary disease | 0.70 (0.56-0.87) | <0.001 | 3 | 0.65 (0.52-0.81) | <0.001 | 3 |
Congestive heart failure | 0.94 (0.71-1.24) | 0.645 | 0.94 (0.71-1.24) | 0.655 | ||
Diabetes | 0.77 (0.59-1.01) | 0.062 | 2 | 0.68 (0.51-0.89) | 0.006 | 3 |
renal failure | 0.99 (0.76-1.29) | 0.956 | 1.19 (0.9-1.56) | 0.214 | ||
Initial blood analysis | ||||||
Procalcitonin 0.1-0.25 ng/L | 1.36 (0.97-1.89) | 0.072 | 1.31 (0.94-1.84) | 0.111 | ||
Procalcitonin 0.25-0.5 ng/L | 1.77 (0.88-2.64) | 0.151 | 1.86 (0.85-2.79) | 0.221 | ||
Procalcitonin >0.5 ng/L | 1.12 (0.8-1.58) | 0.5 | 1.24 (0.88-1.76) | 0.217 | ||
C-reactive protein 50–100 mg/dl | 0.89 (0.63-1.28) | 0.537 | 0.97 (0.68-1.39) | 0.882 | ||
C-reactive protein 100–150 mg/dl | 1.06 (0.76-1.46) | 0.735 | 1.07 (0.77-1.48) | 0.701 | ||
C-reactive protein > 150 mg/dl | 0.76 (0.57-1.01) | 0.057 | 0.87 (0.65-1.15) | 0.325 | ||
Nutrition marker | ||||||
Initial albumin level <30 g/dl | 0.81 (0.6-1.08) | 0.153 | 0.77 (0.58-1.03) | 0.082 | 2 | |
Severity of CAP | ||||||
Multilobar CAP | 0.68 (0.45-1.03) | 0.066 | 3 | 0.92 (0.61-1.38) | 0.684 | |
Pneumonia severity index (per increase in class) | 0.79 (0.69-0.91) | <0.001 | 2 | 0.81 (0.7-0.93) | 0.003 | 1 |
Follow up history not available on admission | ||||||
Positive blood cultures | 0.89 (0.62-1.27) | 0.509 | ||||
ICU transfer during hospitalisation | 0.43 (0.29-0.66) | <0.001 | 5 | |||
Development of empyema | 0.33 (0.19-0.57) | <0.001 | 6 | |||