Table 2 Predictors of COPD exacerbations
Characteristic | Exacerbation Cases | Controls | Unadjusted matched |
|---|---|---|---|
12,609 (%) | 35,299 (%) | OR (95% CI) | |
Age at exacerbation | |||
40–49 | 340 (2.7%) | 985 (2.8%) | |
50–59 | 1,473 (11.7%) | 4,120 (11.7%) | |
60–69 | 3,548 (28.1%) | 9,831 (27.9%) | |
70–79 | 4,399 (34.9%) | 12,210 (34.6%) | |
80+ | 2,849 (22.6%) | 8,153 (23.1%) | |
Male | 6,240 (49.5%) | 17,604 (49.9%) | |
Quintile of Index of Multiple Deprivation | |||
0 (least deprived) | 1,358 (10.8%) | 4,564 (12.9%) | 0.81 (0.75–0.87) |
1 | 2,033 (16.1%) | 5,964 (16.9%) | 0.92 (0.86–0.99) |
2 | 2,585 (20.5%) | 7,022 (19.9%) | 1.00 |
3 | 2,659 (21.1%) | 7,479 (21.2%) | 0.97 (0.91–1.03) |
4 (most deprived) | 3,974 (31.5%) | 10,270 (29.1%) | 1.05 (0.99–1.11) |
Body mass index at exacerbation | |||
Underweight | 1,562 (12.4%) | 3,795 (10.8%) | 1.13 (1.06–1.21) |
Normal | 3,846 (30.5%) | 10,610 (30.1%) | 1.00 |
Overweight | 3,747 (29.7%) | 10,747 (30.4%) | 0.96 (0.91–1.01) |
Obese | 2,856 (22.7%) | 8,295 (23.5%) | 0.95 (0.90–1.01) |
Unknown | 598 (4.7%) | 1,852 (5.2%) | 0.89 (0.81–0.99) |
Smoking status at exacerbation | |||
Non Smoker | 840 (6.7%) | 3,171 (9.0%) | 1.00 |
Ex Smoker | 7,141 (56.6%) | 19,618 (55.6%) | 1.38 (1.27–1.50) |
Smoker | 4,600 (36.5%) | 12,414 (35.2%) | 1.42 (1.30–1.55) |
Unknown | 28 (0.2%) | 96 (0.3%) | 1.12 (0.73–1.72) |
Prescriptions in the previous three months | |||
Antibiotics | 6,403 (50.8%) | 12,193 (34.5%) | 1.95 (1.87–2.03) |
Oral glucocorticoid therapies | 4,270 (33.9%) | 5,871 (16.6%) | 2.57 (2.45–2.69) |
Anticholinergics | 8,092 (64.2%) | 16,738 (47.4%) | 1.99 (1.91–2.08) |
Medical history | |||
Hypertension | 5,216 (41.4%) | 15,163 (43.0%) | 0.93 (0.89–0.97) |
Diabetes | 2,047 (16.2%) | 6,028 (17.1%) | 0.94 (0.89–0.99) |
Heart Failure | 1,314 (10.4%) | 3,476 (9.8%) | 1.07 (1.00–1.15) |
Depression | 4,624 (36.7%) | 11,717 (33.2%) | 1.17 (1.12–1.22) |
Forced expiratory volume in one second (FEV1) as proportion of predicted | |||
Mild COPD (≥80) | 1,832 (14.5%) | 6,102 (17.3%) | 1.00 |
Moderate COPD (50–<80%) | 4,245 (33.7%) | 13,838 (39.2%) | 1.03 (0.96–1.09) |
Severe COPD (30–<50%) | 3,625 (28.7%) | 7,533 (21.3%) | 1.61 (1.51–1.72) |
Very severe COPD (<30%) | 1,362 (10.8%) | 2,146 (6.1%) | 2.12 (1.95–2.32) |
Unknown | 1,545 (12.3%) | 5,680 (16.1%) | 0.88 (0.82–0.96) |