Table 1 Estimates of the various parameters (means) utilized in the Markov Model, comparing symptom management to pirfenidone and nintedanib

Probabilities—beta and log-normal distributions

 Lung function decline

0.032–0.089

OR = 0.55 (0.09)

OR = 0.54 (0.08)

 Mortality

Varies [12]

OR = 0.69 (0.19)

OR = 0.70 (0.19)

 Acute exacerbation

0.0197

OR = 1.10 (0.58)

OR = 0.56 (0.18)

  Additional mortality following AE

OR = 1.40 (0.20)

OR = 1.40 (0.20)

OR = 1.40 (0.20)

Quality of life—beta distribution

 Lung function [37]

  90–110%

0.8380 (0.1782)

0.8380 (0.1782)

0.8380 (0.1782)

  80–89.9%

0.8105 (0.2051)

0.8105 (0.2051)

0.8105 (0.2051)

  70–79.9%

0.7800 (0.2244)

0.7800 (0.2244)

0.7800 (0.2244)

  60–69.9%

0.7657 (0.2380)

0.7657 (0.2380)

0.7657 (0.2380)

  50–59.9%

0.7387 (0.2317)

0.7387 (0.2317)

0.7387 (0.2317)

  40–49.9%

0.6634 (0.2552)

0.6634 (0.2552)

0.6634 (0.2552)

 Exacerbation, disutility [7]

  First cycle, post-exacerbation

− 0.140 (0.047)

− 0.140 (0.047)

− 0.140 (0.047)

  Subsequent cycles

− 0.078 (0.032)

− 0.078 (0.032)

− 0.078 (0.032)

Costs (2020 U.S. dollars)—log-normal distribution

 Drug (annual) [18, 19]

–

$ 113,193

$ 112,357

 Acute exacerbation, per episode [20]

$ 14,731 (4,026)

$ 14,731 (4,026)

$ 14,731 (4,026)

 Follow-up care (annual) [19]

$ 12,291 (710)

$ 12,291 (710)

$ 12,291 (710)

  Oxygen therapy

$ 8,916

$ 8,916

$ 8,916

  Pulmonary office visit

$ 890

$ 890

$ 890

  Primary care

$ 890

$ 890

$ 890

  Pulmonary function test

$ 680

$ 680

$ 680

  Echocardiogram

$ 401

$ 401

$ 401

  CT chest

$ 241

$ 241

$ 241

  Palliative care

$ 160

$ 160

$ 160

  Pulmonary rehabilitation

$ 62

$ 62

$ 62

  6-min walk test

$ 51

$ 51

$ 51