Table 3 Predictive performances and validation of the nomogram

ESM-based nomogram

0.836(0.798–0.873)

 < 0.001

Base model

0.803(0.761–0.845)

 < 0.001

0.132(0.044–0.217)

0.003

0.051(0.030–0.071)

 < 0.001

CURB-65

0.669(0.622–0.715)

 < 0.001

0.882(0.715–1.048)

 < 0.001

0.237(0.197–0.277)

 < 0.001

PSI

0.704(0.654–0.754)

 < 0.001

0.558(0.380–0.735)

 < 0.001

0.192(0.138–0.246)

 < 0.001

APACHEII

0.740(0.693–0.786)

 < 0.001

0.426(0.246–0.606)

 < 0.001

0.141(0.083–0.198)

 < 0.001

SOFA

0.778(0.737–0.819)

 < 0.001

0.296(0.114–0.479)

 < 0.001

0.120(0.060–0.181)

 < 0.001